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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|