Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
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The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.